Divisional Playoffs Picks - New York Jets (+8.5) at New England Patriots
Sunday, January 16, 2011
by Aengus Moorehead
When & Where:
Sunday, Jan 16th. 4:30 p.m. ET, Gillette Stadium ; Foxborough, Ma.
Weather:
Temperatures at kickoff will be in the mid to upper 20's with partly cloudy skies. Winds will be very light and should be a non factor.
Analysis:
The New York Jets beat the Colts in the playoffs for the first time ever last week, and they did it on the ground. Quarterback Mark Sanchez was under constant pressure from the Colts defensive line, and constant orders from head coach Rex Ryan not to throw the ball. The New England Patriots come into this game with the 11th best run defense in the league. The Pats defense is built to beat the Jets, and Tom Brady and the New England Patriots offense has been unstoppable all season long.
The brashest, loudest team in the NFL was shut up after the Patriots beat them down, 45-3, on Dec. 6. No doubt, the Jets are looking for payback. They can earn theirs by sending the AFC's No. 1 seed home.
The New England Patriots marched through the end of the regular season, scoring more than 30 points in each of their last eight games. They simply haven't been touched. If the Jets defense keeps it close until the end, how will the Pats respond?
Few players can impact a game like Tom Brady can. And his biggest chance to take over comes not from his arm, but from his head. In the second meeting against the Jets, he avoided cornerback Darrelle Revis completely, always finding a more advantageous matchup. That kept his team out of trouble and allowed Brady a 148.9 passer rating.
With Revis in top shape again, don't expect Brady to throw his way. Instead, the onus is on Revis' counterpart, Antonio Cromartie, who was victimized badly by Brady in the 45-3 loss. If bad Cromartie shows up and he can't keep up with the Patriots' quickness, it could be a long game.
Brady has the most unlikely set of wide receivers in football. Not one of his starting receivers is over six foot tall. But when Brady needs height to get the ball over the top, he throws the ball to his 6’6” tall tight end Rob Gronkowski. Running back Danny Woodhead is the biggest little surprise of the season that defensive coordinators still do not seem to have an answer for.
The Jets are all about running the football. Mark Sanchez was inaccurate and indecisive when he decided to throw the ball deep, so the Jets just kept giving the ball to running back LaDainian Tomlinson. The Jets offensive line spent most of the game pushing the Colts defensive line backwards. It is definitely a power running game in New York, but that makes it a very one-dimensional offense.
Everything a defense needs to do to be able to stop the Jets offense can be done by the Patriots defense. The Pats defensive line and linebackers can get pressure on the quarterback, stop the run and cover the tight ends in the middle of the field.
The Jets defense was torched a little by Colts running back Joseph Addai, especially up the middle. Every once in a while, the running game for the Colts would back up the Jets defense and Peyton Manning had room to throw. The Patriots offense will be a significantly different challenge for the Jets defense. There is more than one threat out of the backfield in New England, and Tom Brady knows how to use his receivers.
With the home crowd staying nice and quiet while they are on offense, the Patriots will have plenty of time for Brady to diagnose what Ryan is cooking up — an overload on one side, a tricky blitz on the other. Brady unloads the ball more quickly than anyone, which is why he is rarely fazed by the Jets' defensive looks. Don't expect that to change.
The Jets have played in some big games, making huge plays at the end. But they haven't had to scratch and claw back against a team like New England. Don't be surprised if the Pats jump out to a quick lead, limit mistakes, and take a cruise-control win yet tease them with late scoring hope. Take points and Jets.
Bet on New York (+8.5) at New England at Bovada Sportsbook
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Tags
antonio cromartie - danny woodhead - darrelle revis - joseph addai - ladainian tomlinson - mark sanchez - new england patriots - new york jets - rex ryan - rob gronkowski
