NFL Odds: New England Patriots Face Reeling Washington Redskins
Saturday, December 10, 2011
by Aengus Moorehead
Analysis:
The New England Patriots' quest for another AFC East title continues this Sunday, when the perennial powers head to FedEx Field for an interconference showdown with the staggering Washington Redskins.
The Patriots can seize a third straight divisional crown and eighth in the past nine seasons with a victory this week coupled with a loss by the rival New York Jets on Sunday. New England can also reach the 10-win mark for the ninth consecutive year by besting the Redskins, which would serve as the longest active such streak in the NFL now that injury-riddled Indianapolis is guaranteed not to reach that total.
New England has opened up a two-game advantage on the Jets for first place in the AFC East by virtue of four straight wins in which it has scored at least 31 points each time, extending the run with a 31-24 home triumph over the downtrodden Colts last Sunday.
The Patriots weren't overly pleased with their performance in spite of the final result, however. New England started out slow on offense, mustering just a field goal over its first two drives, while a much-maligned defense allowed the league's most anemic scoring attacks to put up three touchdown drives of 86 or more yards over the game's last 20 minutes.
The Patriots were awesome in between, however, with quarterback Tom Brady engineering touchdowns on four consecutive possessions that gave the playoff hopefuls a commanding 31-3 advantage prior to Indianapolis' belated push. The reigning league MVP finished the day with 289 yards and two scores on a crisp 29-of-38 passing.
Washington had a fourth-quarter lapse of its own this past weekend, one which proved to be far more fatal. Holding onto a three-point lead against the Jets with under five minutes to play, the Redskins gave up 21 points in a mistake- filled late stages of a 34-19 loss at FedEx Field.
After New York took a 20-16 edge on a 30-yard touchdown pass from Mark Sanchez to Santonio Holmes with 4:49 left, Washington quarterback Rex Grossman was sacked and fumbled on the ensuing possession. The Jets recovered at the Redskins' nine-yard line and reached the end zone two plays later to put the contest out of reach.
Washington turned the ball over three times for the game, with Grossman also tossing a late interception while completing just 19-of-46 throws for 221 yards.
The defeat was the seventh in eight games for Washington following an encouraging 3-1 start to 2011, and the team is on the verge of ensuring itself a third straight losing season.
Making matters worse for the Redskins, two key offensive starters -- tight end Fred Davis and left tackle Trent Williams -- are expected to sit out the final four games on suspension for reportedly violating the NFL's substance abuse policy. Davis is leading Washington with career highs of 59 catches and 796 receiving yards this year.
The Redskins have prevailed in six of eight overall meetings with New England, but the Patriots lambasted Washington by a 52-7 score during their 16-0 regular season of 2007 in the most recent matchup between the teams. The Redskins had beaten the Pats six straight times prior to that outcome, the last of which was a 20-17 decision at FedEx Field on Sept. 28, 2003. New England is 0-2 all-time as the visitor in this set, having also dropped a 24-22 verdict at RFK Stadium in 1981.
Mike Shanahan and New England's Bill Belichick are no strangers to one another, with the two multiple Super Bowl-winning head coaches having faced off 12 times in the past. All of those games took place during Shanahan's long tenure with Denver from 1995-2008, with his Broncos coming out on top on nine of those occasions. That includes Denver's 27-13 win over New England in the 2005 AFC Divisional Playoffs, and four of Belichick's losses to Shanahan occurred while at the helm of the Cleveland Browns from 1991-95.
Belichick has a 1-2 record against Washington as a head coach, while Shanahan is 10-4 overall against New England when counting a 1989 victory over the Pats while in charge of the Los Angeles Raiders.
Time & Venue:
- 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, December 11, 2011. FedEx Field, Landover, Maryland
Last Week's results:
- New England Patriots (-20) beats visiting Indianapolis Colts 31-24.
- Washington Redskins (+3) loses to visiting NY Jets 34-19.
Last week's ATS:
- Favourite New England Patriots (9-3) wins but does not cover
- Underdog Washington Redskins (4-8) loses and does not cover.
NFL Football Odds: Patriots -9, O/U 48
Next up:
- New England at Denver Broncos, Sunday, December 18
- Washington at NY Giants, Sunday, December 18
Reigning NFL MVP Tom Brady is tied with Hall of Famer Warren Moon for sixth on the NFL's all-time list with 291 touchdown passes. Brady has four games this season to track down John Elway, who is fifth with 300. Brady has found a familiar target in TE Rob Gronkowski, who collected three more touchdowns last week. Gronkowski's 13 scores tie him with San Francisco's Vernon Davis (2009) and San Diego's Antonio Gates (2004) for the single-season NFL record for tight ends.
Washington allowed Shonn Greene to rush for three scores in a 34-19 loss to the New York Jets last week. With Davis now benched, former Patriot WR Jabar Gaffney leads the Redskins with 46 receptions for 665 yards receiving. Washington is deciding between RT Sean Locklear and undrafted rookie Willie Smith to fill the vacated spot of Williams, who was the fourth overall pick of the 2010 draft. TE Logan Paulsen is expected to start on Sunday after beginning the season as the team's third-string TE. Veteran Chris Cooley is also in the mix.
The Redskins don't have the firepower to match the Patriots score for score, so they'll have to take a page from the Bills, Steelers and Giants -- the three teams that have managed to knock off New England this season. All of those clubs were able to frustrate Brady and get him off his game enough to win, and Washington will attempt to do the same with a strong pass rush led by Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan and persistent blitzing by aggressive defensive coordinator Jim Haslett. It's up to Brady to make quick decisions and expose the mismatches that will present themselves, while the Redskins have to be sound in their coverage assignments to have a chance.
Washington will also need to cut down on its mistakes if it's going to pull off the upset here, as the Patriots rarely beat themselves with costly errors. That could be a tall order, however, considering Grossman's penchant for interceptions and New England's ability to create turnovers on defense. The Redskins have had less than two giveaways in a game just once this year, and that came in the season opener.
Expect the Patriots to concentrate on containing the run and daring the erratic Grossman to beat them with his arm. The Redskins are 3-1 when rushing for over 100 yards as a team and a woeful 1-7 when they fail to reach that mark.
Former Redskins DE Andre Carter has recorded nine sacks in 12 games this season. He is just two shy of the 11 that he recorded in 2009 with Washington and 3 1/2 short of his career-best effort with San Francisco in 2002.
Redskins WR Santana Moss needs 70 yards receiving to reach 9,000 for his career.
Redskins WR Santana Moss needs 70 yards receiving to reach 9,000 for his career.
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing New England
Washington is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
New England is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
New England is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games
New England is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games on the road
While the Patriots possess a superior quarterback and far better skill players than the Redskins, there's a bigger reason why New England is on the verge of an eighth playoff appearance in nine years and Washington's staring at a third straight losing season.
Success in the NFL is about making the most of opportunities, and the Patriots don't turn the ball over a lot and have been one of the league's most efficient offenses inside the red zone, whereas the Redskins seem to continually give games away with breakdowns and costly mistakes.
With Brady having been near the top of his game as of late, Washington's going to need a superlative effort on defense and Grossman to conjure up one of his "Good Rex" performances to come out on top. After losing his most reliable receiver to suspension, that doesn't seem to be overly likely.Bet on NFL Football games with Bodog Sportsbook, click here!
NFL Football Pick: Take Patriots.
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Tags
afc east - andre carter - antonio gates - bill belichik - brian orakpo - chris cooley - denver broncos - fedex field - fred davis - indianapolis colts
