NFL Odds: Slumping Oakland Raiders Meet Spoiler Kansas City Chiefs
Friday, December 23, 2011
by Aengus Moorehead
Analysis:
Despite losing their first three games by lopsided scores and suffering a four-game losing streak later in the season, the Kansas City Chiefs are amazingly fighting for their playoff lives. They still have plenty of work to do and get help from other challengers if they are to win their second straight AFC West title, but the situation is not completely far-fetched. The Chiefs must win their final two games, including Saturday against the visiting Oakland Raiders.
They also need Denver to lose at Buffalo on Saturday and San Diego to drop at least one of its remaining two games. If they get the outside help they need, their Week 17 game at Denver would be for the West title. Oakland had a one-game lead in the division after Week 12, but does not control its own destiny anymore after three straight losses, including a hard-to-swallow 28-27 setback to Detroit last week.
The Raiders had emerged as the favorites to claim the wide-open AFC West less than a month ago after a string of three consecutive victories gave the longtime postseason absentees a 7-4 record and a one-game lead atop the division. With dropping three straight since, however, they now trail Denver by one game in the standings heading into Saturday's crucial clash.
While a win this week would keep the Raiders in the mix for a playoff spot, a loss to the Chiefs could ensure the Silver and Black is left out of the tournament for a 10th year in a row depending on how some of the other Week 16 matchups play out.
The Raiders did fare better in last weekend's home clash with Detroit that followed back-to-back blowout defeats on the road to Miami and Green Bay. but still wound up on the short end of a 28-27 decision after the Lions rallied for 14 unanswered points in the final five minutes. The go-ahead score, a six-yard touchdown pass from quarterback Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson, came with just 39 seconds left to play and capped a drive in which Detroit marched 98 yards in under two minutes.
The Chiefs are more concerned about finishing strong with all the uncertainty that presently exists regarding the organization's long-term plans. The team fired head coach Todd Haley shortly after its 37-10 loss at the New York Jets on Dec. 11 and replaced him on an interim basis with defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel, a possible candidate to keep the job permanently.
Crennel's credentials got a big boost after Kansas City shocked the previously- unbeaten Green Bay Packers in the onetime Cleveland Browns sideline boss' first game in charge. Quarterback Kyle Orton, a free agent at season's end, also made his case to be retained by leading the offense to a season-high output in his initial start as a Chief.
After being held to 252 total yards or less three times and mustering a combined total of 32 points over a four-week stretch with Haley favorite Tyler Palko at the controls, the Kansas City offense piled up 438 total yards in the club's 19-14 triumph over the reigning world champion Packers this past Sunday. Orton, obtained off waivers from Denver last month, completed a sharp 23-of-31 passes for 299 yards without a turnover in his first shot at the regular's role.
Crennel's defense made a statement as well, holding the high-powered Packers to a season low in points and total yards (315). Green Bay signal-caller and league MVP contestant Aaron Rodgers hit on just 17-of-35 attempts and was sacked four times by a swarming Kansas City unit.
The Chiefs also dominated on that side of the ball in a 28-0 whitewash of the Raiders in Oakland back on Oct. 23, intercepting the quarterback combo of Carson Palmer and Kyle Boller six times and returning two of those picks for touchdowns. The defense has yielded an average of 275 total yards over its last four games.
Kansas City holds a 53-47-2 edge in its all-time regular-season series with Oakland and will be shooting for its first home-and-home sweep of the Raiders since 2006. Oakland has had great success at Arrowhead Stadium in recent years, however, coming out on top in each of its last four trips there and handing the Chiefs a 31-10 home loss in the 2010 regular-season finale. The visitor has had the upper hand in this set as of late, prevailing in nine of the past 10 encounters between the clubs. Kansas City last bested the Raiders on its home turf via a 17-13 verdict in 2006.
These longtime rivals have also squared off three times during the postseason, with the Chiefs winning two of those tests. Oakland posted a 41-6 home rout of Kansas City in a 1968 AFL Division Playoff, but the Chiefs returned the favor with a 17-7 road triumph in the 1969 AFL Championship. Kansas City also topped the visiting Raiders in a 1991 AFC First-Round Playoff.
Crennel owns a 2-1 career record against Oakland as a head coach, with all of those games coming during his four-year tenure with the Browns from 2005-08. Hue Jackson lost his only previous meeting with the Chiefs as a head man with the Raiders' Week 7 result and will going head-to-head against Crennel for the first time.
Time & Venue:
- 1:00 PM ET, Saturday, December 24, 2011. Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Last Week's results:
- Oakland Raiders (+1) loses to visiting Detroit Lions 28-27.
- Kansas City Chiefs (+13.5) beats visiting Green Bay Packers 19-14.
Last week's ATS:
- Underdog Oakland Raiders (7-7) pushed
- Underdog Kansas City Chiefs (6-8) wins outright.
NFL Football Odds: Chiefs -2, O/U 42
Next up:
- Oakland home to San Diego Chargers, Sunday, January 1
- Kansas City at Denver Broncos, Sunday, January 1
Orton made his first start for the Chiefs and was 23 of 31, and his 299 yards were the most by a Kansas City quarterback in a game this season. The Chiefs will likely try to take advantage of Oakland’s No. 26 rush defense. Ryan Succop has made 21 straight field goals, including four last week. Javier Arenas leads the AFC with an average of 13.2 yards per punt return.
Oakland led 27-14 with five minutes left before allowing two touchdowns – the last which capped a 98-yard drive in 1:35 – to put its once-promising playoff hopes in serious jeopardy. Carson Palmer had a big game statistically against Detroit (32 of 40 for 367 yards and a touchdown), but is 3-4 since taking over as starter in Week 9. Oakland allows 27.3 points per game, fourth-worst in the NFL.
The Raiders came up empty in pressuring Stafford against the Lions and paid the price, but sacked Orton five times when the quarterback was still with the Broncos back in Week 1 and came up with a victory that night.
With a secondary that's hampered by injuries, Oakland needs its pass rushers to come through and prevent Kansas City's new gunslinger from duplicating last week's fine effort. The Chiefs' stout recent play on defense has been fueled by an upgraded pressure package, and Palmer has been susceptible to mistakes when hurried this year.
The turnover battle was the single most important element to Kansas City's Week 7 win over the Raiders, with 21 of its 28 points coming off Oakland giveaways. The Raiders are 5-0 this season when forcing more turnovers than its opponent, but 0-5 when having a negative margin.
Having lost three in a row and with their playoff chances close to being on life support, the Raiders are going to come out ready and determined to give their best shot. Kansas City shouldn't be lacking confidence after just dealing the defending world champions their first loss in nearly a full calendar year, but could be in position for a letdown after last week's inspired performance.
The Chiefs won the first meeting 28-0 in Week 7, when Raiders RB Darren McFadden injured his foot. He hasn't played since. … Oakland's Michael Bush is averaging 60.5 rushing yards in his last four games after averaging 115.3 in his previous four.
The Raiders have won five straight at Kansas City and six straight AFC West road games.
There is a possibility all four AFC West teams will finish 8-8. If so, the Chiefs would win the tiebreaker based on best division record.
Kansas City is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing at home against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Oakland is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games
With both teams still having something to play for and the rivalry that exists between these two franchises, motivation isn't going to an issue here. That means it's going to come down to who executes the best, and the Chiefs seem to hold an advantage based on recent results. Kansas City's defense has been mostly terrific over the past four weeks, and Orton brought a much-needed spark and stability to an offense that was sorely lacking in those aspects.
Oakland, meanwhile, continues to cripple itself with mistakes in all sorts of forms, whether it's turning the ball over in bunches, defensive breakdowns or a troubling plethora of penalties. The Chiefs seem to be the more sounder of these two participants, and that grasp of fundamentals could wind up being the difference.
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NFL Football Pick: Take Chiefs.
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aaron rodgers - afc west - arrowhead stadium - calvin johnson - carson palmer - darren mcfadden - denver broncos - detroit lions - green bay packers - hue jackson
